America has far too many social programs in general. This has been true since the signing of the "New Deal." This, ultimately unsustainable, social spending was predicated upon an ever expanding economy and increasingly larger population growth. The broader the pyramid base, the more stable the top.
Yet today we have inverted the growth pyramid and continuously chip away at our core ability to provide these payments. Namely, our economy and economic growth.
Yes, like a boxer who steadily works the body of his opponent knowing that he will win the fight when his opponents core gives out, our country has given a viscous left, right combination to its ability to provide welfare payments to those in need by both limiting employment through COVID policy and also increasing payouts to recipients.
The core of our economy is beginning to look far more jelly like with every quarterly report.
Take yesterday's Employment Situation Summary report (linked below) that was released today. It shows that we added 235,000 jobs in August and that unemployment lowered by .2%. Now, for those who might not be adept at reading these reports, you have to understand that they projected about 720,000 new hires and a drop in unemployment of approximately 1%.
That would have been quite a boost to our nation, but instead we still have less people paying in, more people receiving, and those who are receiving are receiving more than ever before.
How long can we sustain this without the inflation dam completely giving way?
CPI inflation is holding steady at a staggering 5.4% with real inflation around 13.4%. I mean seriously, try going into your bosses office and asking for a 13.4% raise EVERY MONTH. That is what you would have to do just to keep up with inflation right now.
And that does not even include hidden inflation from manufacturers!
Yep, packages get smaller, more air in chip bags, less pickles on your burger, smaller French fries containers... you get the picture.
We are on course to finish the year with an CPI inflation rate nearing, or possibly exceeding, 5%. That has not happened since 1990, and would exceed the 2007 CPI inflation of 4.08% that preceded the financial collapse of 2008.
Right now we need EVERYONE rowing the boat, but it seems more and more like people are not interested in contributing anymore. "As long as I am safe, that is all that matters."
Well, how long do you think you will be safe if the economy goes kaput?
Not long once those checks stop and you have to find a job amongst a sea of other job seekers who were also relying on handouts and who now are competing against you for what few jobs remain after we have shut down all of our businesses.
Businesses do not reopen on a dime. Jobs have been lost over the last two years that are not coming back, and when people have to start looking for work they are going to be SHOCKED at how hard it will be and how stiff the competition will be just to get employed in the sector they were in when they got "shut down."
They expect to go right back to work like nothing happened. That is nothing but a hallucinatory fantasy.
Yet they do not see it right now because they are living in a fictional governmental bubble supported by expanded food stamps, larger WIC payments, a Child Tax Credit that pays them monthly instead of yearly, and unemployment payments that are the highest ever recorded.
Side note, turn off your TVs and Radios in March of next year or you will hear the lamentational wailing of all of those who got their Child Tax Credit throughout the year who realize that their tax return is going to be $500, or that they might owe money because they did not adjust their withholdings to account for that money.
At some point, just like a boxer whose body is beaten, the economy is going to give out. The only question we will have to wait to find out the answer to is will it fall to its knees or will it be completely laid out on its back.
The knockdown (not necessarily knock out) seems inevitable.
I only hope it is not too late to avoid the worst of it.