The 2016 election saw some very interesting changes in American politics. An outsider (non-politician) won, a government spying campaign that makes Watergate look like kindergarten was conducted and subsequently gotten away with, and we had the development of a wholly new political thought, "The Trump Effect."
So what is "The Trump Effect" Well, for those of you who don't thoroughly enjoy politics like I do, it is the effect of the Anti-Trump coalition on the accuracy of polls, specifically media and exit polls, and it has all but rendered them meaningless.
If you don't remember exactly what it looked like, please allow me to remind you. Pre-voting polls shows Hillary up by approximately 8-10 points, and looking like she was going to win in a landslide. Exit polling showed a slightly smaller number, around 6 points, but still showed Hillary winning an electoral college landslide.
As we all know, things did not turn out that way.
So, many political scientists, from the armature to the PhD, set out to attempt to figure out what happened and how the polling was so drastically inaccurate. What they found was dubbed, "The Trump Effect." What they found was that many of the people polled simply lied to the pollsters. Further anonymous polls and studies confirmed it. People were so worried about how their friends and family would react if they said that they were voting for Trump that they either said that they weren't voting or that they were voting for Hillary. Both turned out to be lies.
When asked, however, why they felt the need to lie and to conceal their vote, a more than ridiculous 97%+ said that they feared reprisal or osterization by their friends and family members, or some type of retaliation, though from whom seemed to vary enough as to not make a specific accusation.
The biggest question we have to ask ourselves, however, is whether or not The Trump Effect is still in play in the upcoming election. I truly believe that it is.
The vitriol and hatred towards Trump in this country has only grown, yet all anecdotal evidence (signs, bumper stickers, and many others) seem to support the political theory that the VAST majority of Trump voters will not be changing their vote this time, and that many who didn't vote for him in 2016 are going to vote for him in 2020. This means that the Democrats are going to have to produce an unprecedented turn out to win this election. The polls seem to suggest that they might, but are those polls accurate?
I will leave it to you to decide, but as for me and my study of some of the more obscure polling data, I think that we are witnessing a complete re-do of the 2016 polling, and that The Trump Effect has only gotten bigger not smaller. I believe, and also predict, that there will be a massive upset comparative to the polling, both pre-voting and exit polling. With people nervous about ANTIFA and anti-Trump sentiment, I can't blame them.
So here's the rub, many of the people saying that they aren't going to vote, or that they're voting for Biden? Many of them are likely lying. The only people I believe in this election are those brave enough to admit voting for Trump, or those who are pledging their vote to Jo Jorgenson.
I think that's about the only accurate data available in this sea of insanity that is the 2020 election.